January 2016 Commentary

Wow, wasn’t January a fun month! In my previous commentary, I tabled three potential scenarios for stocks during 2016. My pessimistic scenario saw oil prices staying lower for longer, the duration of which was positively correlated to the rising risk of a market meltdown driven by a heightened probability of a liquidity crisis. I placed a 30% chance of this scenario unfolding, but I didn’t think it would happen during the first two and a half weeks of 2016. Fortunately, we entered January with conservative gross and net exposure positioning, so our funds suffered only modest losses for the month.

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