April 2017 Commentary

Are you confused yet? Lots of investors are. After 100 days in office Trump is certainly more confusing than ever before. Reflation or no reflation? Policy change or no policy change? Markets certainly assume and hope something will get done on healthcare and, more importantly, taxes, but that’s a roll of the dice. Nevertheless, animal spirits rule as record amounts of money flows into passive index ETFs.

The Forge First portfolios are not positioned to “bet” one way or another on Trump getting something done or not. For us, “Trump” is another unknown in a roster of global uncertainties which could roil already highly valued equity markets.

During the month of April, the Forge First funds experienced only minor losses. Please continue reading for a macro overview and discussion of the funds’ current positioning and performance.

Download PDF

Emma Querengesser
February 2017 Commentary

Having a background in the music business, I have a keen ability to keep track of “records”. However, during the month of February, my mind was blown away by the number of records being achieved on Bay and Wall Streets. Up until and including Feb 28th we had 50 straight trading days where the S&P 500 had not moved 1% or more, up or down; and then indices broke out on March 1st (after Donald Trump’s speech). If one looks back historically to when we have had long streaks (50 days +) of subdued returns (< 1%) with an upside breakout as we experienced on March 1st, it gets pretty interesting. In other words, if history is a guide, markets may experience a high degree of volatility in the near future.

Download PDF

Emma Querengesser
January 2017 Commentary

As I outlined in our December 2016 commentary, I believed a lot of good news would be priced in the market by the time Trump took office on January 20th. Thereafter, reality would set in – the impact of the rising US dollar, clarity into what policies the new President would (or would not) be able to deliver upon, and renewed focus on the potential risks around the globe. For example, Trump talking tough on China and Mexico while cooing softly with Russia. As of January 31st, we still have no idea how these theatrics will play out; hence, markets are signalling a move from “Animal Spirits” to “wait and see mode”.

Download PDF

Emma Querengesser